The Issue That Will Not Die
In the foreign affairs department, the new Social Democratic
government in the Czech Republic has certainly had a rough start.
Zeman's controversial words regarding the Sudeten German
Landsmannschaft was a blunder without question, but the German
election campaign has obviously made more of it than it was worth.
Zeman's point of view, after all, is essentially correct: all three
organisations -- the Communists and Republicans in CR and the SL in
Germany rejected the 1997 Czech-German Declaration, so it seems to
make little sense to invite their representatives to any of the bodies
created by that Declaration.
Moreover, Zeman's possible implication that the SL can be considered a
radical organisation in the same way the Czech Communists and
Republicans are considered radical is correct. The SL, and several
Bavarian politicians or CSU support the idea that CR's entry into the
EU should be tied to the Sudeten cause. This is certainly not the
opinion of the overwhelming majority of people and politicians on
either side of the border nor of officials in Brussels. The very
concept smacks of economic and political blackmail, and if any of this
were better known outside of Bavaria, Western leaders might well
rebuke their German counterparts. Calling it radical -- unpopular,
desparate and drastic -- is completely fair. Not only Zeman's comment
was correct, but also his implication (intended or not) was right on
the money.
In politics, however, being right is not always the most important.
One has to think not just of what one says but also of where and when
one says it. Knowing that Germany is coming up to an election, Zeman
ought to have weighed his words. He should have also been aware that
August is a slow news month, so the press is desparate for any story.
(The real question that needs to be asked is why a new Prime Minister
takes a long holiday just a few weeks after coming to power. I accept
that everyone needs a holiday, but the timing seems off.)
Kohl raises the stakes
Kohl went a bit too far by claiming that Zeman was interfering in the
German campaign. Zeman's ill-timed statement might have an effect in
the upcoming elections, but that effect is hardly one that Kohl should
complain about. If anything, Zeman's words offered the German right
(CSU and CDU) its chance to turn Czech-German relations into an
election issue, and that will probably only benefit the right as they
will be seen by some to be defending the blood of the nation.
I have said before that the Declaration was useless from the outset,
but now it seems to not only be pointless but actually harmful. It is
not providing recncilliation, but yet another point of conflict
between Bonn and Prague. Also, Neubauer's ability to win space in the
Czech press was again clearly shown.
Another Comparison
The reaction last Friday from the Castle was a bit surprising in its
subtle criticism of Kohl, but it was certainly a fair remark. The
Castle has truth on its side when it points out that the Czech-German
issue (somewhat remarkably) was not a factor in the recent Czech
Parliamentary elections, and that it ought not to be a factor in the
German elections.
But again, truth is not always everything in politics. Let's hope that
Bonn's reaction to Havel's words, which for the moment seems oddly
positive, does not escalate the problem any further.
